Bayesian adaptive experimental design is a form of active learning, which chooses samples to maximize the information they give about uncertain parameters. Prior work has shown that other forms of active learning can suffer from active learning bias, where unrepresentative sampling leads to inconsistent parameter estimates. We show that active learning bias can also afflict Bayesian adaptive experimental design, depending on model misspecification. We analyze the case of estimating a linear model, and show that worse misspecification implies more severe active learning bias. At the same time, model classes incorporating more "noise" - i.e., specifying higher inherent variance in observations - suffer less from active learning bias. Finally, we demonstrate empirically that insights from the linear model can predict the presence and degree of active learning bias in nonlinear contexts, namely in a (simulated) preference learning experiment.

Predictive simulations of the shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) in heterogeneous energetic materials (EM) are vital to the design and control of their energy release and sensitivity. Due to the complexity of the thermo-mechanics of EM during the SDT, both macro-scale response and sub-grid mesoscale energy localization must be captured accurately. This work proposes an efficient and accurate multiscale framework for SDT simulations of EM. We employ deep learning to model the mesoscale energy localization of shock-initiated EM microstructures upon which prediction results are used to supply reaction progress rate information to the macroscale SDT simulation. The proposed multiscale modeling framework is divided into two stages. First, a physics-aware recurrent convolutional neural network (PARC) is used to model the mesoscale energy localization of shock-initiated heterogeneous EM microstructures. PARC is trained using direct numerical simulations (DNS) of hotspot ignition and growth within microstructures of pressed HMX material subjected to different input shock strengths. After training, PARC is employed to supply hotspot ignition and growth rates for macroscale SDT simulations. We show that PARC can play the role of a surrogate model in a multiscale simulation framework, while drastically reducing the computation cost and providing improved representations of the sub-grid physics. The proposed multiscale modeling approach will provide a new tool for material scientists in designing high-performance and safer energetic materials.

语言模型既展示了定量的改进，又展示了新的定性功能，随着规模的增加。尽管它们具有潜在的变革性影响，但这些新能力的特征却很差。为了为未来的研究提供信息，为破坏性的新模型能力做准备，并改善社会有害的效果，至关重要的是，我们必须了解目前和近乎未来的能力和语言模型的局限性。为了应对这一挑战，我们介绍了超越模仿游戏基准（Big Bench）。 Big Bench目前由204个任务组成，由132家机构的442位作者贡献。任务主题是多样的，从语言学，儿童发展，数学，常识性推理，生物学，物理学，社会偏见，软件开发等等。 Big-Bench专注于被认为超出当前语言模型的功能的任务。我们评估了OpenAI的GPT型号，Google内部密集变压器体系结构和大型基础上的开关稀疏变压器的行为，跨越了数百万到数十亿个参数。此外，一个人类专家评估者团队执行了所有任务，以提供强大的基准。研究结果包括：模型性能和校准都随规模改善，但绝对的术语（以及与评估者的性能相比）；在模型类中的性能非常相似，尽管带有稀疏性。逐渐和预测的任务通常涉及大量知识或记忆成分，而在临界规模上表现出“突破性”行为的任务通常涉及多个步骤或组成部分或脆性指标；社交偏见通常会随着含糊不清的环境而随着规模而增加，但这可以通过提示来改善。

脑转移性疾病的治疗决策依赖于主要器官位点的知识，目前用活组织检查和组织学进行。在这里，我们开发了一种具有全脑MRI数据的准确非侵入性数字组织学的新型深度学习方法。我们的IRB批准的单网回顾性研究由患者（n = 1,399）组成，提及MRI治疗规划和伽马刀放射牢房超过19年。对比增强的T1加权和T2加权流体减毒的反转恢复脑MRI考试（n = 1,582）被预处理，并输入肿瘤细分，模态转移和主要部位分类的建议深度学习工作流程为五个课程之一（肺，乳腺，黑色素瘤，肾等）。十倍的交叉验证产生的总体AUC为0.947（95％CI：0.938,0.955），肺类AUC，0.899（95％CI：0.884,0.915），乳房类AUC为0.990（95％CI：0.983,0.997） ，黑色素瘤ACAC为0.882（95％CI：0.858,0.906），肾类AUC为0.870（95％CI：0.823,0.918），以及0.885的其他AUC（95％CI：0.843,0.949）。这些数据确定全脑成像特征是判别的，以便准确诊断恶性肿瘤的主要器官位点。我们的端到端深度射出方法具有巨大的分类来自全脑MRI图像的转移性肿瘤类型。进一步的细化可以提供一种无价的临床工具，以加快对精密治疗和改进的结果的原发性癌症现场鉴定。

Objective: Traumatic brain injury can be caused by head impacts, but many brain injury risk estimation models are not equally accurate across the variety of impacts that patients may undergo and the characteristics of different types of impacts are not well studied. We investigated the spectral characteristics of different head impact types with kinematics classification. Methods: Data was analyzed from 3,262 head impacts from lab reconstruction, American football, mixed martial arts, and publicly available car crash data. A random forest classifier with spectral densities of linear acceleration and angular velocity was built to classify head impact types (e.g., football, car crash, mixed martial arts). To test the classifier robustness, another 271 lab-reconstructed impacts were obtained from 5 other instrumented mouthguards. Finally, with the classifier, type-specific, nearest-neighbor regression models were built for brain strain. Results: The classifier reached a median accuracy of 96% over 1,000 random partitions of training and test sets. The most important features in the classification included both low-frequency and high-frequency features, both linear acceleration features and angular velocity features. Different head impact types had different distributions of spectral densities in low-frequency and high-frequency ranges (e.g., the spectral densities of MMA impacts were higher in high-frequency range than in the low-frequency range). The type-specific regression showed a generally higher R^2-value than baseline models without classification. Conclusion: The machine-learning-based classifier enables a better understanding of the impact kinematics spectral density in different sports, and it can be applied to evaluate the quality of impact-simulation systems and on-field data augmentation.

With growing sophistication and volume of cyber attacks combined with complex network structures, it is becoming extremely difficult for security analysts to corroborate evidences to identify multistage campaigns on their network. This work develops HeAT (Heated Alert Triage): given a critical indicator of compromise (IoC), e.g., a severe IDS alert, HeAT produces a HeATed Attack Campaign (HAC) depicting the multistage activities that led up to the critical event. We define the concept of "Alert Episode Heat" to represent the analysts opinion of how much an event contributes to the attack campaign of the critical IoC given their knowledge of the network and security expertise. Leveraging a network-agnostic feature set, HeAT learns the essence of analyst's assessment of "HeAT" for a small set of IoC's, and applies the learned model to extract insightful attack campaigns for IoC's not seen before, even across networks by transferring what have been learned. We demonstrate the capabilities of HeAT with data collected in Collegiate Penetration Testing Competition (CPTC) and through collaboration with a real-world SOC. We developed HeAT-Gain metrics to demonstrate how analysts may assess and benefit from the extracted attack campaigns in comparison to common practices where IP addresses are used to corroborate evidences. Our results demonstrates the practical uses of HeAT by finding campaigns that span across diverse attack stages, remove a significant volume of irrelevant alerts, and achieve coherency to the analyst's original assessments.

Three main points: 1. Data Science (DS) will be increasingly important to heliophysics; 2. Methods of heliophysics science discovery will continually evolve, requiring the use of learning technologies [e.g., machine learning (ML)] that are applied rigorously and that are capable of supporting discovery; and 3. To grow with the pace of data, technology, and workforce changes, heliophysics requires a new approach to the representation of knowledge.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in natural language understanding and generation, but the quality bar for medical and clinical applications is high. Today, attempts to assess models' clinical knowledge typically rely on automated evaluations on limited benchmarks. There is no standard to evaluate model predictions and reasoning across a breadth of tasks. To address this, we present MultiMedQA, a benchmark combining six existing open question answering datasets spanning professional medical exams, research, and consumer queries; and HealthSearchQA, a new free-response dataset of medical questions searched online. We propose a framework for human evaluation of model answers along multiple axes including factuality, precision, possible harm, and bias. In addition, we evaluate PaLM (a 540-billion parameter LLM) and its instruction-tuned variant, Flan-PaLM, on MultiMedQA. Using a combination of prompting strategies, Flan-PaLM achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on every MultiMedQA multiple-choice dataset (MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, MMLU clinical topics), including 67.6% accuracy on MedQA (US Medical License Exam questions), surpassing prior state-of-the-art by over 17%. However, human evaluation reveals key gaps in Flan-PaLM responses. To resolve this we introduce instruction prompt tuning, a parameter-efficient approach for aligning LLMs to new domains using a few exemplars. The resulting model, Med-PaLM, performs encouragingly, but remains inferior to clinicians. We show that comprehension, recall of knowledge, and medical reasoning improve with model scale and instruction prompt tuning, suggesting the potential utility of LLMs in medicine. Our human evaluations reveal important limitations of today's models, reinforcing the importance of both evaluation frameworks and method development in creating safe, helpful LLM models for clinical applications.

Image classification with small datasets has been an active research area in the recent past. However, as research in this scope is still in its infancy, two key ingredients are missing for ensuring reliable and truthful progress: a systematic and extensive overview of the state of the art, and a common benchmark to allow for objective comparisons between published methods. This article addresses both issues. First, we systematically organize and connect past studies to consolidate a community that is currently fragmented and scattered. Second, we propose a common benchmark that allows for an objective comparison of approaches. It consists of five datasets spanning various domains (e.g., natural images, medical imagery, satellite data) and data types (RGB, grayscale, multispectral). We use this benchmark to re-evaluate the standard cross-entropy baseline and ten existing methods published between 2017 and 2021 at renowned venues. Surprisingly, we find that thorough hyper-parameter tuning on held-out validation data results in a highly competitive baseline and highlights a stunted growth of performance over the years. Indeed, only a single specialized method dating back to 2019 clearly wins our benchmark and outperforms the baseline classifier.

Dataset scaling, also known as normalization, is an essential preprocessing step in a machine learning pipeline. It is aimed at adjusting attributes scales in a way that they all vary within the same range. This transformation is known to improve the performance of classification models, but there are several scaling techniques to choose from, and this choice is not generally done carefully. In this paper, we execute a broad experiment comparing the impact of 5 scaling techniques on the performances of 20 classification algorithms among monolithic and ensemble models, applying them to 82 publicly available datasets with varying imbalance ratios. Results show that the choice of scaling technique matters for classification performance, and the performance difference between the best and the worst scaling technique is relevant and statistically significant in most cases. They also indicate that choosing an inadequate technique can be more detrimental to classification performance than not scaling the data at all. We also show how the performance variation of an ensemble model, considering different scaling techniques, tends to be dictated by that of its base model. Finally, we discuss the relationship between a model's sensitivity to the choice of scaling technique and its performance and provide insights into its applicability on different model deployment scenarios. Full results and source code for the experiments in this paper are available in a GitHub repository.\footnote{https://github.com/amorimlb/scaling\_matters}